World population

I recently came across a superb lecture on global population growth by the statistician Hans Rosling "Don't panic: the facts about population". Based on the latest UN data, populations in billions are predicted to be:

	2010	2050	2100
America	1	1	1
Europe	1	1	1
Africa	1	2	4
Asia	4	5	5
Total	7	9	11

There is uncertainty in these predictions, for example back around 2000 the UN predicted global population at 9 ± 1.5 billion by 2050, although it seems unlikely that they will be fundamentally incorrect unless there is a cataclysm.

What's changed since 2009?

A lot should have happened since my last posting in 2009 so I've decided to brush up my knowledge by taking the FutureLearn course "Climate change: challenges and solutions" run by the University of Exeter

Amongst the developments that I need to consider are:

1. Global warming has apparently levelled out and no one knows why.
2. World population shows signs of stabilising at around 11 billion by 2100.
3. The economies of China and India still grow rapidly and their populations aspire to Western standards of living.
4. Financing of major new projects has been badly hit by global recession.
5. Nuclear has had its Fukushima moment yet there are still sparks amongst the embers, including in the UK.
6. Thorium cycle has been touted as an inherently safer way to exploit nuclear power.
7. Fracking is the new kid on the block, bringing revolutionary change to US energy supply and potentially also to the UK.
8. Investment in renewables has proceeded apace.

I will take stock of the progress that has been made in the nearly quarter of a century since my original study in 1990 and have decided to extend my horizon to 2100 because 2025 is only ten years away and too immediate to consider major strategic options.