Green and pleasant UK - setting a target

Kyoto was inevitably a triumph for the agility of politicians and the power of commerce over the uncertainty of scientists. So here we are, in the next millennium, gambling on the chance that global warming is a false prophesy, continuing with our current patterns of energy consumption and, as they manifest themselves, living with the consequences of sea level rise, extreme weather and climate change, mitigating them as best we can. We place ourselves at hostage to drought, flood, famine, mass migrations and all the social instabilities that these bring.

But I wonder what would be the consequences of taking deliberate steps towards stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at its present level, i.e. aiming for a reduction of about 60% in current global emissions? Is such a reduction technically and economically feasible? How long would it take? And what would our world look like?

Consider firstly the UK since, although it makes only a small contribution to global emissions, it epitomizes the challenge to nations with high per capita energy consumption. What if we were to reduce our annual per capita energy consumption from 3.7 tons of oil equivalent (toe) to 1.5 toe, comparable to that in Argentina and Iran? This would still be 50% more than China and nearly five times greater than India but such a reduction would most likely be associated with a significant drop in the material quality of our lives. Such a move would be unlikely to be popular and would almost certainly be politically unacceptable to most Governments.

So is it possible for the UK to maintain its current per capita energy consumption whilst reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60%? Annual emissions (NETCEN; expressed as million tons of carbon - MtC) by sector in the UK for 1990 and 2000 are shown in the following figure, along with an indicative target total for 60% reduction from 1990 values:



How might we achieve this target?