The analysis examined the socio-economic and technical factors that would influence energy supply and demand out to 2025 and specifically the contribution that nuclear power might make to the limitation of carbon dioxide emissions. The conclusions in 1989 were as follows:
"The world population is increasing more rapidly than ever before. Moreover we are more conscious of the need to help raise the standard of living of the developing world than ever before. This requires a massive effort from many quarters, but the provision of an adequate supply of energy is an essential ingredient. We have seen that, with plausible conservation measures, the world is likely to need over double the existing annual supply of energy by 2025 if the standard of living of the developing world is to continue to expand at even its present rate. If we were to burn fossil fuel at the present rate and ignore the greenhouse effect consequences and if we were to develop all the practicable hydro schemes in the world, we would still only meet half the energy needs. It will be difficult enough to supply adequate energy if nuclear power is able to make a significant contribution. To abandon the nuclear option now could make the task impossible."
Fifteen years have elapsed since those conclusions were drawn. In that time nuclear power has entered the doldrums, gas has been king and evidence has grown steadily for the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on global warming and climate change.
The time has come to revisit the analysis to determine whether our original conclusions still hold good. The analysis is based on a very simple model in which likely future needs for energy are projected from three factors:
world energy demand=
world population x GDP/person x energy/GDP
Impacts on the environment follow directly from the sources that are used to satisfy the demand. The following authoritative sources have been used. Links to these sources vary from year to year; an up to date set may be found at Thornbury 2050 - Resources:
- The World Factbook - CIA overview
- BP Statistical Reviews - historical energy data
- UN Population Division - projections to 2050
- World Bank - background to GDP
